Truth Bombs Over Baghdad
I took my research tactics from my baseball gambling and started to use them on football, which is my favorite sport to gamble on. Since I graduated college I’ve been gambling pretty much exclusively on football with some pretty decent success rates. If only I would stick to the script. By that I mean, not let emotions, or current moods play into my picks. Picking with the heart is a killer and one of the absolute worst things you can do.
I’ve tried doing sites and blogs before but never really put much effort or time into them. Plus I never really did the research that I do now. Nor did I care like I do now. I still don’t bet a ton of money on games. Instead I spread either $25 or $50 a game across a lot of games. This is something that I’ve played with and will continue to play with. I still don’t know if I have better success putting more money on a select few games, or putting less money on a lot of games. It’s something that this site will help me monitor.
One thing I hope to do is keep you entertained. My goal is to have readers that might not even gamble. Maybe they just enjoy my humor and want to get a decent preview of a game. Who knows? Maybe I’ll shit the bed completely and this site won’t exist in 2 months. Let’s hope that’s not the case. Also, I’m not going to pull a Mayweather on you. Meaning I’m not going to only post my winners, or come back Monday morning and delete games I lost. Everyone loses, it’s called gambling for a reason.
I’m on all kinds of sports sites all the time; ESPN, SI, SBNation, Deadspin, and plenty of others. Most of them have "experts" making gambling picks, which is something I look at every week. I also listen to a lot of sports radio through the week, which helps me with insight as well. I look at numbers, projections and all kinds of other things. Plus I watch a shit ton of football, and I think I’m a decent enough judge of talent.
Another thing I’ve learned recently is that Vegas is still open and thriving for a reason. If the public won the majority of the bets then there would be no Sin City. Well there would probably still be a Sin City, but it would be like Omaha or somewhere and it wouldn’t be near as fun. So one thing I look at almost as much as the lines themselves is who the public is betting on. Obviously the public is going to hit some of the time, it’s just part of the business, but Vegas always has the upper hand and it’s not just luck. They know what the hell they’re doing.
Over 90% of money that comes in on any given game comes in on kickoff. When placing bets I generally fall squarely into that 90%. Teams have to practice and much like anything in life, things happen. Never know when someone key is going to tear an ACL on a Friday afternoon walkthrough. Or get arrested for throwing feces at passing by cars off the overpass. We’re talking about the football players here; I don’t put anything by these guys. Therefore I usually wait until a couple of hours before kickoff to lock in bets, making sure I have the best odds.
I know a lot of people shop bets around but I do not. That may not be smart, but I like to keep it simple. I use Bovada, so most, if not all of the lines you see will come from there. I like to have all my money come and go from one place, call me old fashioned.
If you’ve read through all this, than either you love me dearly, which I appreciate and share the love right back, or you’re bored as hell as I am writing this. Maybe it’s a combination of both. Maybe you took a weird drug that causes you to read shit that you care nothing about. I don’t know why you’re spending your time this way but I thank you for it. Anyways, what I want to get at here is just kind of a warning. Everybody thinks they know more than they actually do and as you’ll see I fall squarely in that category. I’m in no way at all a professional gambler. I have a job which I get up and go to every day. I complete everything that’s asked of me when it’s asked of me so don’t think I’m sitting here rambling on while months worth of shit is piling up. So back to my point, don’t mortgage your house on any of my suggestions. Hopefully I can provide some helpful insight to help you better enjoy you’re sport watching experiences. If you have suggestions, or ideas, or you just think I’m dead ass wrong please don’t hesitate to let me know. For instance, if you are an expert on all things USF football please let me know. Because I would have no idea if their starting QB had a raging Crystal Meth addiction, and would love that knowledge. Because you always want the dude hyped up on meth on your side. Trust me I’m from Marshall County.